Forex Trading Profits Fom Calendar Patterns

Most traders have heard of seasonal patterns, something which is mostly associated with commodities. The foreign exchange market also has calendar patterns which influence trading, and just like in commodities, traders can take advantage of them to improve their odds for success and profits.
Monthly Patterns
Nearly all currency pairs have one or more months during which they have a directional tendency. There are three pairs in particular which have traded in the same direction during a particular month at least seven years in a row. AUD/JPY has risen in January, while USD/CAD has fallen in June and USD/JPY has dropped in August. In each case, the moves have been significant. Let's take a look at USD/JPY as an example.
On average, USD/JPY has declined over 325 points each year since 1999 in the month of August, which translates to 2.80%. While the percentage does not seem extraordinary, when one takes leverage in to consideration, it is a different story. Had one shorted 100,000 USD/JPY at the start of each August and closed that position out at the end of the month, the total profit would have been in excess of $20,000 (not taking in to account interest carry). That is an outstanding return considering the margin requirement for a position like that is only $2,000. And this does not even consider compounding!
Weekday Patterns
For the short-term trader, there are also patterns of behavior which are based on weekdays. It is a little more complicated, however, than just saying buy or sell on Monday, for example. A secondary condition must be applied, which can be accomplished using the month. The result is patterns which take place on certain weekdays during a given month.
An example of this kind of pattern is GBP/USD on Mondays in December. The pound has risen 73% of the time on Monday during the last month of the year since 1999 (31 observations). The average move has been 40 pips. Assuming a 5 pip spread, a trader who entered traded this pattern over the last seven years would have booked over 1000 pips in profits, which translates to more than $10,000 if one took positions of 100,000 GBP/USD each time.
Trading the Patterns
The examples outlined above are just a couple of the patterns which can be found in the forex market. There are many worth incorporating in to one's trading. Obviously, one strategy which could be employed is a simple enter-and-hold based on the pattern for a given month or weekday. That, however, does leave one open to the both in-trade draw downs, some of which can be substantial, and the simple fact that patterns do not always repeat every time, and sometimes change.
An alternative to enter-and-hold is to use calendar patterns to bias one's trading. For example, a day trader could look for opportunities to buy in to weakness in GBP/USD on Mondays in December. Similarly, a swing trader could use short-term breakdowns to enter in to short trades in USD/JPY during August.
The trader looking to employ forex calendar patterns must utilize the same good risk procedures as are always necessary. This applies regardless of the strategy employed.

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Forex Is For Everyone!

Simply put, foreign exchange, more popularly known as Forex or FX, is the simultaneous purchase of one currency and sale of another. The market for trading in currencies is known as the Forex Market. While getting started in Forex, you must understand that the Forex market determines the ?exchange rate? for which the specified currencies can be bought and sold. This exchange rate is essentially a price and can be analyzed in the same way as we would analyze a price.

This can best be understood by providing an apt analogy in terms of the price of the commodity. Say that commodity is a pencil. If the purchase price of 4 pencils is $1 then, the dollar-to-pencil rate of exchange will be 4 pencils. You can look at this from another angle also. You can also have a fair idea of the pencil-to-dollar rate of exchange. This comes out to 25 cents. This essentially means that if you sell one pencil you can get 25 cents for it. You must understand that the rate of exchange that is available in the newspapers doe not refer to these simple commodities but gives readers information about the comparative prices for different currencies.

Getting Started in Forex!

Forex, in the true sense, is a global 24-hour marketplace. This is because, investors can respond in real time to any fluctuations caused by current economic, social and political events. You can get started in Forex by choosing two currencies you want to trade in. This is because the currencies are traded in pairs, i.e., Euro and Yen, US Dollar and Euro etc. The foreign exchange market is unique due to the extreme liquidity associated with it. Money freely flows from this market since millions of dollars can get in and out of it each day. It is also considered liquid due to the fact that traders can just open and close their trade positions in a wink of an eye!

Bevy of Trading opportunities in Forex

The sheer number of currencies traded is fascinating. There will always be currencies that are moving rapidly up or down, offering opportunities for profit (and commensurate risk) to astute traders. Yet, like the equity markets, Forex offers plenty of instruments such as forward contracts, futures and options, spot market etc, to mitigate risk and allows the individual to profit in both rising and falling markets.

Who can participate in the Forex Market?

Until recently, this 2 trillion dollar market was reserved for banks, insurance companies, large corporations and other large institutions, as the minimum traded volume was rather high. However, less than a decade ago, it became possible for retail investors to get started in the Forex market through dealers. Although the retail market for currency trading is more or less a parallel to the inter bank market, prices in both markets are very similar and move very closely.

Conclusion

The currency markets are hard to resist due to its sheer liquidity, opportunities for booking huge profits and high levels of leverage. However, you must also be aware of the risks involved in this segment so as to make an informed decision before venturing out into the unexplored world of Forex!

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Forex ? Trading Terminology Explained

Whenever a new discipline is undertaken, one of the most basic factors for success is familiarity with the terms utilized by those practicing in that area. Trading in the foreign exchange (FOREX) market is no exception. This article will help new traders understand some of the terminology common in the FOREX market.

While this is not intended to serve as a complete glossary for all the various terms to be encountered in the world of FOREX, the selected terms below commonly recur in the trading sector. In the process of studying them, one should commit the concepts and their meaning to memory so that efficiency will increase as trading activities increase. Although not difficult to comprehend, the terms must become thoroughly familiar so as to help developed a strong foundation for a never-ending education in trading the FOREX.

Pips
In a previous article, this author explained in depth the term ?pip?. Without reiterating here the full explanation, suffice it to say that a pip is the unit of measurement representing the smallest movement in the price of a currency. Gaining pips is the goal of every FOREX traders, as these units inherently indicate value.

Spike
Important news releases, such as the U.S. Non-farm Payroll Report (NFP), typically cause the price in the affected currency pairs to suddenly increase or decrease. Referred to as a 'spike?, this rapid price movement can take place in a split second and span a range of 50 to 100 pips in one direction. The occurrence of the spike gives traders a quick and rather unique opportunity to make substantial investment returns in a very short period of time when properly approached.

Retracement
There is a tremendous tendency for volatility in the FOREX. Retracement is the change in the direction of currency price against an established trend. It is often, but not necessarily, associated with rapid movements in the price, such as that which occurs during a news release, where the price first spikes in one direction and then retreats. This change can occur without even a moment's notice. Conversely, the reversal could be gradual, taking place over minutes or even hours.

Stopped Out
As a matter of proper risk management, a trader will utilize a stop loss to limit losses in the event the price moves unfavorably against the trader's position. The position is said to be 'stopped out? and, consequently, closed down if the stop loss trigger is hit, as previously determined by the trader.

Slippage
After submitting a limit order to be filled at a future price level, a trader may experience 'slippage?, which occurs when the broker cannot fill the order at the requested price, but instead at the first available price. Most of the time, this works to the trader's disadvantage by reducing the number of potential pips a trader might gain if the order had been filled at the price requested. Slippage is most likely to occur during a news trading event where the market tends to move rapidly. A few brokers will allow the trader to limit or avoid slippage by manipulating certain user preferences in the controls of the trading platform prior to attempting the trade.

Sandy Robinson, J.D., Copyright 2007

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The Best Time To Trade Forex

Selecting the correct day and time to trade can play a major role in your forex success. Although forex market seems to be available 24/6, not all the days of the week will bring profits. A trader not only has to choose the right day to trade, but also know the best hours. When not to trade? What is the absolute best time for forex? When can you get most earnings?

Let's go over the basics ? 3 major forex trading sessions:

1.New York market opens from 7:00 AM to 4 PM
2.Japan/Australia market opens from 7:00 PM to 3 AM
3.London market opens from 3:00 AM to 11:00 AM

Seems like forex market never sleeps, however the trading volume and price movements are not the same during all the mentioned sessions. There are times when you should jump in and there are times when it is better to keep out.

The main idea is to get involved when the forex markets are the busiest. Each currency reacts differently during each session. For example:

During London market - Euro, US dollar, British Pound and Swiss Franc are most active currencies involved.

During New Year market ? Us dollar, Euro, British Pound, Australian dollar, Japanese Yen, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar are the most active currencies.
A great time to trade is the first 3-5 hours of each opening session mentioned above, especially when your fundamental analysis points on new economic releases. However, the best time to trade is between 3 AM and 11 AM.

The overlap between New York and London markets (3 AM ? 11 AM) creates an intense trading momentum full of trading opportunities enhanced with frequent price movements, and therefore is the best time to make money. With the right trading plan, money management and system, you can make thousands of dollars within minutes.

The currency pairs that are most active during the overlap are:

1.USD/ CHF
2.GBP/USD
3.EUR/USD
4.USD/JPY

Many economic releases are made around 8:00 AM, therefore the 3 hours between 8 AM and 11 AM are extremely profitable for very quick and significant profits.

Keep in mind that volatility is very fast and if you aren?t careful, instead of making money, you can lose most of it! Therefore, the use of stop/loss and the discipline are crucial for you success. Also, don?t cry over the spilled milk ? if you missed a trend, get over it. There will be more opportunities, trust me!

Now, when is the best day to trade? Which days should be avoided? Although the market is available 5 days a week, there are certain days which are better avoided:

1.Fridays should be AVOIDED, since the end of the week is extremely unpredictable.
2.Sundays should be AVOIDED, since there is almost no action in currency rates.
3.Holidays should be AVOIDED, since the market is in most cases motionless.

The BEST days to trade are Tuesday and Wednesday, since the peak of trades happen during this time of the week.

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Forex Trading Currency

When you begin trading on Forex, you have to learn how to convert currencies and note the difference in values, as well as how currencies are exchanged between international lines. This means studying not only domestic market trends and currency values, but also those of foreign markets.

Since Forex is the Foreign Exchange Market, you obviously cannot expect everyone within the market to trade in U.S. so many variables and volatile currencies being exchanged, how can you know a good buy or sell when you see one without complete awareness of the value of foreign currency ?

The first step is to find a source that will give you a basic idea of the current exchange rate between your domestic currency and the foreign currency in question. You should do this as a base listing for any currency that with which you might become involved. Of course, this will not be consistent down to the cent or fraction of a particular currency throughout an entire business day, but at least you will have your starting point from which to begin, almost like North on a compass. Such sources can be found all over the Internet, as well as through many brokers, both on line and in person.

The most common currencies found in Forex are the U.S. dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese yen, and the Australian dollar. In the past, there would have been many more currencies to keep track of (such as the franc, the lira, or the Deutschmark). However, with the consolidation of most of the European market trading on Forex to the Euro, many currencies have been eliminated, making trade on Forex for other lands less complicated.

If you purchase a commodity in a particular currency, and that currency's value falls against the U.S. dollar, you can actually make money by selling that same commodity in dollars. The same is true in reverse should the value of a foreign currency increase against a U.S. dollar. Of course, you can only take advantage of such a situation should the commodity be traded in bothcurrencies and both markets in question.

Once you are able to discern a base value of each particular currency and its conversion rate against others traded on Forex, you will be able to more closely monitor the change in currency conversion, including its inconsistency and volatility. Such ideas will not seem so ?foreign?, and you will be caught up and knowledgeable right along with the pros. Then, you will need to learn how to read, understand, and ultimately interpret additional market trends.

Copyright Alex Morgan, All Rights Reserved.

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