Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts

16 October 2017

The 40 Rules Of Consistently Profitable Commodity Futures And Option Traders, Part 6

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The 40 Rules Of Consistently Profitable Commodity Futures And Option Traders, Part 6

Are you following these forty commodity trading guidelines? Follow them all and you have a better chance of becoming a consistently profitable commodity futures and options trader. Design your trading plan around these rules. Don't underestimate their value for your success.

We All View The Market Through Fuzzy Glasses

34) Be fully willing to change your mind. A flexible mind is a sign that?your ego is under control. Stay in the now moment and let the market unfold as it may. You should be simply watching for clues to make a decision. The commodity futures contract market doesn?t ?have to? do anything. Remember that everyone views the world through their very own fuzzy, distorted and colored glasses. There is a tremendous amount of information we miss.
It's like trying to watch a live football game through a soda straw. We see just a tiny bit of what's really happening. However, we think we are seeing the whole picture ? that's where we run into trouble. The good news is your competition is in the same boat. We need to be flexible and change our minds when we must. Our input of the world is too small, biased and inaccurate to be correct most of the time.

Know Your Trading Time Frame and Eliminate the Useless Noise

35) Pay attention to the time frame that is larger than the one you are trading. If you are trading five-minute bars, be aware of the 30 or 60-minute chart. If you are trading daily bars, then watch what the weekly futures chart has done. We are looking for clues. The balancing act is to take in just enough information that is important, but not too much.

Many futures and options traders have their charts loaded with too many things; redundant moving averages, momentum indicators, multi time frames, etc. These indicators are fine as long as they each add important information and you can digest them. In reality, all you really need is a few price bar chart time frames and a few personally developed indicators you trust to convey information that you cannot see otherwise. The brain receives information in a serial manner, meaning we take in data in a single, narrow stream, one idea at a time.

We should make our futures contract trading information unique and different, not redundant. Information overload is a big problem. Everyone goes though it. There should come a time when every good commodity trader cleans house and removes the useless accumulated junk on his charts. Keep your charts Spartan lean with as few competing indicators as possible.

Each one should sing for its supper and pull its own weight. Each one needs to tell you a story that cannot be seen in the price bars alone. That's what the computer is for. To have a 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 100-day and 200-day moving price average is pure noise. There's much better stuff to put up there. I'm sure you get the picture.

Watch Out For Market "Scenarios"

36) Be careful when hanging your hat purely on fundamental commodity futures information. These are news events, supply and demand figures, etc. I've seen the biggest losses taken as a result of traders getting fixated on news. Their trading gets sloppy and a long haul stock investor mentality begins. What started out as a disciplined short term trade turns into a long haul trade, once the loss begins.

Recently, gold has been in a bull market. Traders were lining up and?pyramiding as prices went higher?from news of big India and China buying. Many commodity traders did quite well for a while as gold quickly moved from $500 to $750 an ounce. But then the correction came. Many were prepared for a nerve racking $30-50 slam. The gold gurus were warning of it. It corrected as expected and many bought more gold and talked about the same bullish news.?Buy alas,?the gold market continued down into the low $600 area. This was a devastating correction for many. In reality, this was just a normal correction when compared to many other commodity futures or stock markets.

For example, stocks often run up to 75 and correct to 62 (same percentage) as well as pork bellies, and other commodities. But because many of these traders were fixated on the news and then pyramided, they got caught badly. I heard stories of $100,000 accounts going to less than $10,000 even after the first $50 gold correction. Most were wiped out way before the full $200+ correction. Being vulnerable and inflexible is a dangerous game. Don?t'swing on just one branch of a tree.

Part Seven of Seven, Coming Next!

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
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02 October 2017

Major Mistakes That Plague Traders And How To Avoid Them

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Major Mistakes That Plague Traders And How To Avoid Them

Phil Storer offers trading advice on staying disciplined

Veteran stock and commodity trader Phil Storer discusses common instincts that lead to bad trading decisions--like revenge, omniscience, impulses and haste--and explains how to curb emotions for better results in buying and selling.

In his book, Chalk Talks for Traders ? Easy Xs and Os from a Proven Market Pro, to be released in April, Storer says revenge or trying to ?get even? with a particular market is a prime example of the wrong way to institute a trade. While some emotion is unavoidable, it's best to make decisions on the merits of the methods you've chosen. Giving in to emotion usually lowers the quality of the next set of choices that you'll need to make regarding the trade, he says.

Another pitfall is an attitude that Storer calls pseudo-omniscience. An example, he says, is ?when you think a market can?t go any further in the direction it's been going. But you really don?t know what will happen.? In that case, it's best to simply ignore your ego and stick with your methods.

Bad trades are also caused by compulsion or a need to trade for the sake of trading--a big temptation when markets get into tight ranges and stay there for awhile. Storer says ?the urge is to abandon a proven method out of boredom, and as a result you might take small losses when the best approach would have been no trade at all.?

One problem stemming from compulsion is to trade from the long side only and to constantly look for opportunities to buy. Storer says ?this frequently occurs in spite of the fact that the trend is clearly against the trader. When those long-side trades fail, money is lost and confidence is weakened. But the search for a trade like the last one soon begins again. There's a cost in failing to trade the short side of the market.?

When you veer away from your trading plan and act impulsively or compulsively, the probabilities of long-term success are compromised, he says. No one likes to admit their shortcomings but as soon as you recognize that you're trading outside your system, adjustments must be made, Storer warns.

One reason smart people get into bad trades is overconfidence, Storer says. ?Winning is a wonderful thing, and it's what we aim for all the time, but there's danger in it. It's too easy to become overconfident after a few wins, and that almost always results in sloppy performance.? Sloppiness causes losses and incurs stress, including lack of confidence--which is probably the most crippling problem for any trader, he says. Lack of confidence can prevent a trade from being made in a timely manner and can cause an unwillingness to stay with a trade long enough.

If you realize that you've lost your confidence, it's necessary to do some analysis of recent trades, he advises. Until you're ready to believe in your original methods and to become disciplined again, you should stay away from markets.

Other bad trades result from impulses. ?I call it the I've-got-a-hunch or I-just-feel-it trade,? Storer says. Usually the trader will temporarily abandon his plan and go with his gut. Storer says, 'sometimes that kind of trade will work. But in my opinion, a win under those circumstances can be a big step backward because you've moved farther away from the safety of your plan. And it can become a bad habit that's much easier to acquire than shed.?

Another common reason for lousy trades is the hurry-up syndrome. ?You're scanning the markets, looking for a trade to fit your criteria, and suddenly see something that looks good and is in the triggering process. The tendency is to jump in and then to verify your rationale later. That's usually not good.?

Storer draws on four decades of market experience, and says his reason for writing books is to help others make money without incurring the losses that discourage many traders. He is Director of Trading for the commodity division of Dillon Gage Inc., a full-service commodity trading firm based in Dallas, Texas.
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08 May 2015

An Inside Look At Cameco?s Smith Ranch Uranium Facility

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An Inside Look At Cameco?s Smith Ranch Uranium Facility

Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) is the 800-pound gorilla of the uranium sector. Cameco is to uranium what Wal-Mart is to retailing, and what Saudi Aramco is to petroleum. On a percentage basis, Cameco dominates its sector more so than either of the two. Cameco probably has more clout in turning off the electricity now powering your computer than any other company in the world.

This week, the spot price of uranium rose to $40/pound, for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. That should help grow the uranium business in Wyoming by leaps and bounds. In Part 5, we look at the largest U.S. uranium producer, Cameco-owned Power Resources.

Understanding ?In Situ Leach? Uranium Extraction

?It took $284 million Canadian to build, and it operated with 546 people,? said Patrick Drummond, Plant Superintendent for Cameco subsidiary Power Resources? Smith Ranch facility. He was pointing to Kerr McGee's Smith Ranch underground mine on the wall across from desk, which was later converted into an ISL operation, first run by Rio Algom. ?This operation cost US$44 million to build and 80 people to start.? Drummond was referring to the In Situ Leaching (ISL) uranium extraction facility, known as Smith Ranch. ?That should give you the scale of the ISL versus an underground mine,? he explained.

The aging, but sprightly, Drummond knows his uranium. He's worked in underground mines, open pit mines, and uranium mills since 1980. From 1996 to the present day, he's worked in Wyoming for Power Resources at the company's ISL uranium extraction facility. ?I started off in the coal mines in Scotland,? boasted Drummond, who claims he can spot a coal miner in a bar, just by looking at the veins in his hands. ?I worked up in Elliot Lake and the massive underground mines up there.? Clasping his hands and looking down, he seemed to apologize, ?It's also a massive environmental problem to clean up, a major undertaking. Quirk Lake was one of the bigger mines up there. It cost a lot of money to clean it up.?

The New Face of Wyoming's Uranium Mining is the ISL uranium extraction method, also known as solution mining. The differences between mining uranium underground and an ISL operation are both minor and vast. Both methods mine uranium beneath the surface. So both methods are underground mining. However, that is where the similarities end. ?With underground, you bring up the ore, grate it, crush it, and extract the uranium from the ore,? Drummond explained the basics of underground uranium mining. ?That ore becomes waste, which is known as tailings. You then have to service these big tailings and then decommission.?

ISL is the new breed of mining. ?With ISL, we don?t do that,? continued Drummond in his day-long lecture to our editorial team during a VIP tour of the Smith Ranch facility. ?To mine underground with ISL, you drill the holes where the uranium is and extract the uranium from the underground ore,? he said. ?Then, you process that into yellowcake.?

It's not all wine and roses for Drummond, though. He pines away for his underground mines, ?From a mining perspective, it's not mining so it is not as exciting. Drummond laughs, ?ISL is like a water treatment plant. We take water out and remove some ions.? He makes it sound so simple, ?We remove the water from the underground and remove the ions, being the uranium ion. Then, we put the water back under the ground.? All of the water goes back into the ground? Actually no. Drummond explained, ?We take our water out and we put 99 percent back in. The one percent we call ?bleed.? It's a control function.?

Drummond cites more comparables, ?To start an underground mine, it would take a year to do the shaft before you could start mining. Then, there's the development cost of the mill complex. You have all that outlay of cost before you can get any benefit. It's expensive to do underground -- $200 million plus ? because of the upfront development costs.? From his perspective, the miner in Drummond has come to like solution mining. ?ISL is easier. It is a lot cheaper: less expensive capital costs and less operating expenditures. It is less labor intensive.? Asked about the deadly radon emissions, often cited as a danger in underground mining, Drummond shot back, ?This is a zero emission facility.?

Analyzing the two methods, he said, ?You can start producing faster with an ISL operation. You start your first header house, and you can start producing and make money.? He added, 'so you get a return on your investment faster.? What's the downside? ?We also recover less uranium with ISL,? Drummond admitted. 'some of Cameco's mines in Saskatchewan are running around 5, 10, 15, and 27 percent uranium. In this area, or in an ISL, it runs less than one or two percent. It's very low.? Plus the uranium ore body must be found below the water table. He added, ?You can only do ISL in rock that's porous and has water in it in the first place.?

To put it in the simplest terms, billions of years ago, the uranium found its way into the underground aquifers of Wyoming's sandstones. ?We add oxygen and get the uranium back into solution,? Drummond remarked. ?We complex it with CO2 to keep it in solution, and then bring it to the surface. We extract it with an ion exchange base.? According to Drummond, extracting uranium works on the same principle as a water softener. ?We add salts to the resin to get the uranium to back off from the resin. Then, we take that uranium and make it into a final product called yellow cake.?

And why it is called yellowcake? 'some of it is yellow; some of it is green or dark green. Some of it is black,? Drummond patiently explained. ?The color is a function of how we dry it, not how we process it. There is a very definite correlation between drying temperatures of yellow cake and color.? It all depends on what chemicals you use while processing uranium. At Smith Ranch, we make uranium peroxide. It is very clean and yellow. We complex uranium with hydrogen peroxide to make our product. You can make different types of yellowcake. You can make a uranium diuranate, a complex made with ammonia.? Yellowcake can be made with other chemicals.

How is Wyoming's ISL uranium dried? ?We dry the uranium with vacuum dryers,? said Drummond. ?The benefit of vacuum dryers is first of all, it's a vacuum so everything is sucked inside the canister so nothing escapes into the environment. There are no gases that escape.?

Investigating the Environmental Issues

It was, at this point, we felt it appropriate to inquire about all the puzzling worries many of us might correlate when thinking about nuclear energy and uranium. How safe is all of this really? ?When we first started uranium mining, we inherited people from the gold mines,? Drummond explained. ?They were underground, and smoking, breathing in the dust. In the early days, we didn?t have good ventilation. In underground mining, you've got to keep the air moving.? Hard rock underground mining produces dust. ?The shards of silicone you are breathing stick to the follicles on your lungs,? he noted. But that doesn?t happen during the ISL extraction process. No emissions, a farm of well fields with underground pipes and tubing, and very detailed safeguards explain they the lobby wall of Power Resources is lined with Safety Award certificates and plaques.

?On a daily basis, when we leave the facility, we are scanned for alpha radiation,? continued Drummond. 'depending upon your position here, you get urinalysis once per week or once per month. We also check for radiation levels.? How did Drummond fare on his most recent radiation check? ?I was way below,? he laughed. ?There are guys on the beach in Malibu that have higher radiations than I have.?

What precautions does Power Resources take to protect the environment during the ISL extraction process? 'since 1996, we have had zero excursions,? Drummond announced with steeliness in his voice. ?We take very great pains to look at the topography, so if we do have an excursion, we make sure it does not enter what we call the ?waters of the state.? Any channel that could take that and move it into the ?waters of the state,? is something that we are very cognizant of.?

After the holes are drilled into the well fields, a company does a ?baseline sample.? Drummond said, ?That's a sample of the constituents in the water. When we mobilize the uranium, we mobilize other items. It is our duty here, after we start the well field, to return the aquifer back to baseline when we are done.? He added, ?If we know what's in the water before we start, then we know how to restore it to background.? Restoration of the underground tampering with Mother Nature can take anywhere from 18 to 36 months.

The company is meticulous in restoring the landscape as well. Any restoration work on the surface is called ?reclamation.? That can involve farming. ?When we start a well field, we have to, by license, remove the topsoil and store it somewhere,? Drummond explained. ?When we go back to reclaim the property, we take all the pipes out, we take the houses down, and cut our wells off. It's all identified. We put an ID marker on the well. In 50 years time, when Farmer Joe comes around and wonders what was there, the state can say, ?That was a uranium well.? From the time we've stopped mining, we put everything back to normal.?

It takes from two to four months, or up to seven years, to exhaust a well field, depending upon the roll fronts. While it can take up to 24 months to put in a well field, reclamation and restoration take longer. ?We put back the topsoil on, depending upon the weather, as soon as we can,? said Drummond. ?We re-seed, during the spring or the fall, which is the best time for seeds. The seed we use is dictated by the regulators so we use a certain amount of native vegetation.? Because it's very dry at the Smith Ranch, nearly bordering on desert, and because it is also very windy, slapping down the topsoil won?t last very long. ?First, we plant some fast-growing oats to establish a root bed,? he explained. ?If we just planted grasses, it would all blow away. Because we plant the oats, we have fat antelope and fat deer.? From our observations, the sheep were well-fed and frisky.

How does Wyoming ISL mining compare to other places, such as in Texas or in Kazakhstan? ?In Wyoming, the water is pristine, very clean, even compared to Texas, where they do ISL,? answered Drummond. ?The water's pretty clean down there also.? Is the uranium the same? ?When we bring our uranium to the surface, it comes up as uranyl dicarbonate,? he responded. ?In Texas, it comes up as uranyl tricarbonate.? What's the difference? It's in the processing of the uranium. ?We get about 8.5 pounds of pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin,? he explained. ?In Texas, they get about 3 to 4 pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin.?

Drummond described the Smith Ranch ion exchange operation, ?We have two columns in the ion exchange, each with about 500 cubic feet of resin.? The resin costs about $200/cubic foot and, barring mechanical damage, can last up to thirty years, according to Drummond. The polymer beads ? they look like tiny plastic ball bearings ? capture the uranium during the processing phase. ?In Kazakhstan, you get about two to three pounds of uranium per cubic foot of resin,? he continued. ?They use hydrochloric acid because of the water conditions. Of course, you've changed the chemistry of the water and have all the acid to clean up.? Drummond described the water in Kazakhstan as very brackish, and yellowish. ?The TDS (total dissolved solids) is very high,? he added. ?The water's not fit for human consumption anyways.? He laughed, ?Using acid over there cleans their water up.?
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